Trump’s Tariffs: The Bill Comes Home
Trump once promised something deceptively simple:
Impose tariffs.
Foreigners will pay.
Americans will enjoy the victory.
It sounded like fiscal alchemy.
The only problem is that economics does not believe in magic.
A February 12, 2026 report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that nearly 90% of the burden from the 2025 tariffs fell on U.S. businesses and consumers.
From January to August: 94%.
By November: still 86%.
Foreign exporters did not “pay the bill.”
They adjusted prices, restructured supply chains, and diversified markets.
American households, meanwhile, found the invoice in their mailbox. [1]
The Congressional Budget Office was even more clinical.
Roughly 30% of the cost was absorbed by U.S. firms through reduced profits.
About 70% was passed directly to consumers in the form of higher prices.
The share borne by foreign exporters: about 5%.
Five percent.
A modest number for a very large promise.
Trump said, “They will pay.”
The CBO replied with spreadsheets. [2]
According to the Tax Foundation, the average American household paid roughly $1,000 more in 2025 due to tariffs.
In 2026, that figure may rise to $1,300.
“Prices will fall on day one”?
They did — for eggs.
Thanks to improved supply after avian flu was brought under better control, not because tariffs disappeared.
Economics has a quiet sense of humor. [3]
Washington began to feel the strain.
On February 11, 2026, the House voted 219–211 to block tariffs on Canada.
Six Republicans — Thomas Massie, Don Bacon, Kevin Kiley, Brian Fitzpatrick, Jeff Hurd, and Dan Newhouse — joined Democrats.
Trump warned of “serious consequences.”
But even loyal parties occasionally rediscover arithmetic. [4]
The matter now awaits review by the Supreme Court of the United States.
If the Court rules against the administration’s emergency tariff authority, the entire structure could unravel.
The White House maintains that inflation has cooled, corporate profits have stabilized, and growth remains strong — even as average tariff rates have increased nearly sevenfold.
In January 2026, the economy added 130,000 jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Yet 82,000 came from healthcare.
42,000 from social assistance.
In 2025, those sectors accounted for roughly 97% of job growth.
Economist Diane Swonk of KPMG described the structure as a “one-legged stool”: growth resting heavily on healthcare, affluent consumer spending, and massive AI investment.
One one-legged stool can stand — if balanced carefully.
Three one-legged stools side by side may look stable.
But physics does not respond to slogans.
Trump promised to make America great again.
Tariffs were the weapon of choice.
The difficulty is recoil.
Businesses compress margins.
Consumers pay more.
Foreign exporters adapt.
The economy keeps running.
But it runs on one-legged stools.
And one-legged stools do not need enemies — only time.
“Tariffs are a peculiar tax:
they give leaders the feeling of victory
and households the reality of a receipt.When someone says foreigners will pay it all,
check your grocery bill.”
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Liberty Street Economics: “Who Is Paying for the 2025 U.S. Tariffs?”, 12/2/2026.
- Congressional Budget Office: “The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036”, 11/2/2026.
- Tax Foundation: “Trump Tariffs: Tracking the Economic Impact”, cập nhật 2026.
- CNN/Politico: “Six House Republicans defy Trump to block his Canada tariffs”, 11/2/2026.
